July 28, 2013
Yesterday was one of those days where I was just seeing the ball very clearly. My top selection was able to find themselves in the winner's circle in 5 of the 10 races and my 2nd choice in Race 7 got there at 19-1 so all in all that will be very hard to follow up. I was able to catch a nice double to Kettle Corn and then close out the late Pick 4 for $1399. I also had the longshot on my ticket that the 6 caught at the wire and those last few jumps were the difference in cashing for $6900 and $1399. Well that's part of the game and the best horse won the race, so I can't complain. Now we turn our sights to today's 10 race card as we close out the week at Del Mar
First Race
#4 Tiz the Key I will try to beat the favorites in here with this first timer out of the Richard Mandella barn. The horse is bred beautifully and should like the Del Mar surface. This isn't the toughest group, so if she is ready to run she could win first asking
#1 Secret Compass Probably the horse to beat in this field. She adds blinkers for career start number two for the Bob Baffert barn. Unlike most of Baffert's runners this horse seems to have some gate difficulty and came from off the pace last time to run 4th as the beaten favorite. Baffert has put 2 works into the horse since her debut but I'm going to try and beat her as I think the gate difficulty could leave her with a lot to do
#2 Abide in Me Exits the same race as the 1 here and was a good first effort running second. The addition of Lasix today might be enough to get her picture taken
Second Race
#8 Disarm John Sadler started slow at the meet but over the past week or so I don't think there is a trainer doing a better job of spotting his horses. He probably is one of the best knowing the condition book and what races are coming up. This 3 year old gelding takes a signifigant drop here today but he broke his maiden at the $30,000 level so this really is where I think the horse belongs
#7 The Whole Deal Steve Knapp takes a pretty big drop for this 6-1 ML shot and should be close to the pace. There are other speed horses so it might be Maldonado's best option to sit just off and try and run them down late
#3 Laugh At Life Doug O'Neill claimed this one last time from the John Sadler barn. He has never run over a synthetic surface but the horse does have a nice work over the Del Mar surface about 10 days ago.
Third Race
#3 Heat Du Jour To me this is just a pretty weak race and this filly was sprinting last time on the turf where she ran evenly all the way around the track. Today stretching her legs out might be just what she wants to do. It won't take much to have a chance against this state bred group
#5 Cocunut Cream Pie This will be your post time favorite and the horse just missed last time as the favorite over at Hollywood Park. Talamo back aboard today and Mullins has put 2 good works into her since the last race
#6 Vanilla Shake This is nothing more than taking a price in a bad race. This O'Neill runner is 12-1 ML and was almost 20-1 in her debut when she ran 7th and was vanned off. The horse must of checked out fine as she was back on the track working out a few weeks later. Career start #2 may be a chance for her to improve
Fourth Race
#7 Mudflats 5-1 on the ML and a few things are appealing to me about this 3 year old gelding. The horse has a win at the tricky distance of 7 furlongs and the horse removes the blinkers in which he has had 4 good works without them since his last race where he threw in a clunker at Keeneland
#2 No Contingency Blinkers come back on for this 8-1 ML horse. I look for Nakatani to be aggressive and try and have this horse either in the lead or on the pace. If for some reason he does find himself on the lead he might be hard to catch
#8 Derringer Another well placed Sadler horse and the outside post should allow Bejarano to make the decision to shove this horse to the lead or sit just off the pace
Fifth Race
#9 Arraignnment Did I mention Sadler is placing his horses beautifully? Well I think this one will be very tough to beat today. Hasn't been seen at the races since May 27th but the steady and long work tab shows me the horse is sound. Also this is the first time he has tried the Del Mar surface but I think he'll take to it just fine
#6 Whipstock The 6 year old gelding is very lightly raced and I think if anyone is going to beat the 9 it just might be this horse. I think he'll show speed stretching out. Dangerous
#3 Only the Gold This horse found himself in a G3 last time out and had no business being entered in such a race as he ran last at close to 80-1. Horse is back in against cheap claimers where he belongs and he should get the distance just fine. Will need a form reversal but totally possible
Sixth Race
#2 Gnarly Dude I find myself backing another Sadler horse here. I think this 5 year old gelding is very very interesting. They claimed the horse in his last start for $32,000 and bring him back protected today. The horse removed the blinkers 4 starts ago and has won 3 of those races. The only race he didn't win he stumbled and lost the rider at the start so looks like a different horse since the equipment change
#8 Marchman At 12-1 this horse looks to be blazing fast and will shoot right to the lead. Well bred for the surface and distance and Quinonez is probably going to try and fly around the track
#5 Gonna Fly Now The other Sadler horse and Talamo appears to have chosen to ride this one over the other which he also had ridden last time.
Seventh Race
#7 Blingismything She was a beaten favorite last time out and found herself with a little to much work to do in the stretch. The turf at Del Mar is usually a little friendlier for closers so she could be flying late
#10 Pontchatrain First start over the turf and first time stretching out. She is moving in the right direction and Julien LeParoux back on board today for Tom Proctor
#1 Somethingabouther This is my clunker upper horse. She seems to have improved slightly since stretching out past a Mile. Might not be good enough to win but could be there for minor awards
Eighth Race
#2 Goldencents He has been off since the Preakness but the horse has been working lights out. Notice he broke his maiden sprinting in career start number one here at Del Mar. He might just be a natural sprinter and this might be what he was meant to do all along. When you have a talented 3 year old you are almost forced to go down that Triple Crown trail until the horse shows you he can't handle the competition or distance. I think he will actually get the lead from Comma to the Top which is a scary thing to say
#5 Jimmy Creed If Goldencents & Comma to the Top duel up front Jimmy Creed might be the scary one down the lane. Threw in a clunker last time and there are reports he threw a shoe out of the gate so we'll cautiously give him a pass for the last effort
#4 Comma to the Top This horse is just a fighter and runs his heart out every time. I think there are more talented horses in this field but maybe not more determined horses. Peter Miller has done such a great job training this horse and 6F looks like his best distance
Ninth Race
#5 Lia Juliana Steve Knapp drops this horse in half and I think is spotting her to try and win a race. Note she has ran very well over this Del Mar surface last year so the combination of this surface and the drop might get this 8-1 ML shot home
#10 Suances Flower This horse drops a few levels as well and the 6 year old mare willl probably be sitting close to the pace and the outside post should allow Pedroza to work out a good trip
#1 Unkep Rendez Vous Horse cuts back to sprinting today and drops down a couple levels. Bejarano will sit off the pace and try and mow them down late
Tenth Race
#6 Horizontalyspeakin The connections claimed this 3 year old gelding for $75,000 in his debut when he was 11-1 that day and ran 4th so they saw something they really liked in him as this is a gutsy move. They have ran him twice since the claim and he hasn't finished better than 4th. Today they remove the blinkers and the works look like he might have woken up a little in the mornings since the equipment change. Lets hope this translates into the afternoon
#1 Layton Register Certainly the horse to beat shipping in from Churchill. 0 for 7 lifetime but has been very close to breaking thru. Nakatani will have to carve out a trip and if he doesn't get the horse in trouble might be hard to beat
#9 Mi Hijo Peter Miller tries this horse on the turf for the first time along with stretching him out. He keeps the blinkers on and if his form translates to the turf he has a legit shot.
I appreciate everyone taking the time to read my selections and analysis. Good Luck today and if there are any individual questions, comments, or feedback feel free to email me at JimmyQRacing@yahoo.com
All the Best,
JimmyQ
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