Saturday, August 30, 2014

Saturday 8/30 DEL MAR PLAY

RACE 7
1 Mile and Sixteenth (Turf)
Alw 40,000s

#7 Hog's Hollow (9-2)

This 8 year old gelding has some serious back class, but obviously had some health issues that kep him sidelined for almost a year and a half.  I think he is starting to feel a little bit like his old self after his most recent victory over the main track at Del Mar in a claiming ranks event.  Gets back on the turf today and I like his tactical speed which should allow Mike Smith to sit close in a race that I don't see a lot of speed.  Also worked last week and is protected today which are two more great signs for me.

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Friday, August 29, 2014

Friday 8/29/14 DEL MAR PLAY

RACE 4
1 Mile (Turf)
Filly- Alw 40,000s

#4 Intoxicating Move (9-2)

I drew a line thru her last effort b/c that was the race that involved that horrific spill and basically any chance she had of winning that day, as the luke warm favorite, went out the window.  I think stretching her out is going to be just what she needs and she does look to possess a powerful late kick which is key for any turf mile race.  Nakatani jumps aboard today and does his best work on the turf.  Look for her to be coming late. 

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Thursday 8/28 DEL MAR PLAY OF THE DAY

RACE 3
1 MILE
Md Sp Wt 75k

#6 Noble Bird (5-2)

Horse should have won for fun last time out.  My only question is why did this horse work 4 days ago at Arlington Park unless they plan on scratching in this spot.  I don't have that answer but if he does scratch that would explain it, and that they might be eyeing some kind of stakes race at AP soon.  If he goes then I don't think we get 5-2 and I don't think he loses

Best of Luck,
JimmyQ

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Thursday 8/20/14 DEL MAR PLAY

RACE 6
5.5 Furlongs
Filly- Alw 40,000s

#2 Q' Viva (9-2)

Impressive winner last out as a QRacing play of the Day to break her maiden.  She had a very professional effort making a nice run and circling the field around the turn to win going away.  She'll need to move forward again today against tougher but she has had 2 solid drills since her victory including a 4f work in 47 seconds that was best of  62 horses on that day.  I think she is full of herself right now and the cut back in distance won't be a problem as to my eye she appears to be tactical.  I look for her to run huge in this spot.

Good Luck,
JimmyQ
@JimmyQVegas

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Saturday 8/16/14- DEL MAR PLAY FOR THE DAY

RACE 2
Filly- Alw 77,000 N1X
Turf- Mile and an Eighth

#6 Sistas Stroll  (4-1)

This filly, who only cost her connections $20,000 at a September Keeneland sale, surprised everybody a bit breaking her maiden at Churchill about 6 weeks ago at odds of 8-1.  She is the only 3 year old in the field and needs to take another step forward to get back to the winner's circle.  Trainer Tom Proctor has been patient with her and putting some nice works into her leading up to the race.  I look for her to run another BIG one today and take note she is eligible for the ship and win bonus at Del Mar.

Good Luck
JimmyQ
@JimmyQVegas

Friday, August 15, 2014

Friday 8/15/14 QRacing looking for a little extra BEER $$

RACE 5
6.5 Furlongs
OC 62k/N2X

#7 Airfoil (5-1)
Should enjoy the cutback in distance and a return to the Del Mar surface.  Bejarano stays aboard for what should be a midpack trip.  If we can get some pace up front that could set up for Bejarano to run them down in the lane.  There are some sexier horses/connections in this field who will take the money so we should get a fair price on this Vladimir Cerin trainee.

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Thursday 8/14/14 Hoping SWEET AS A ROSE can be Ultra Sweet Today at Del Mar

DEL MAR
RACE 6
Filly- MSW
One Mile and a Sixteenth- Turf

#6 Sweet As A Rose  (3-1)
I'm still not convinced last time she wasn't whacked across the nose in deep stretch by her rivals jockey as it looked like she was about to blow on by and break her maiden.  Anyways, on to today and with Mike Smith picking up the mount, I hope this is a confident factor in getting her to the winners circle.  In my opinion she should have broke her maiden in her last 2 efforts so I'm looking at she is a winner facing Maidens.  Here is how I'm playing her

Win Money in the 6th Race on #6
Starting a Daily Double in the 6th Race 6/3 Straight

The second horse in the double is the #3 horse Addellusion (6-1) running for the first time in the Richard Baltas barn.  First time she ran against an impossible track bias that wasn't favoring horses coming off the pace.  Today adds blinkers and stretches out.  The horse has shown she can excel on synthetic surfaces as she ran a big race 2 back at Arlington.  Good Luck and hope we're cashing all bets today

JimmyQ

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Friday 8/8/14 Crack open the BEER for Happy Hour at DEL MAR

Here is the complete 8 race breakdown for Del Mar before scratches with my top pick 3 picks listed in order of preference

RACE 1
6 Furlongs
State bred Md 50,000

#7 Player's Charm (5-2)
Has been long odds in first 3 starts and ran well in all 3.  With the drop today the pressure is on to win when expected.  Looks tough

#3 Better Luck (3-1)
Can't ignore any firster out of the Peter Miller barn.  Only paid $13,000 for the horse so certainly this horse must be working well in the AM

#2 Stormin Wild (9-2)
Showed speed going 5F and today they add blinkers so is it possible to show more speed?  If he clears the field could be tough to catch

RACE 2
6 Furlongs
Filly Md 62,500

#8 Suite One (7-2)
Broke from the rail first time when running an impressive second.  Trainer steps up in class which is always a confident sign at Del Mar

#3 Nicole Michelle (3-1)
2 starts and 2 decent efforts.  With a slight move forward today could find herself in the winners circle

#7 Birthday Song (15-1)
A nice string of 3f drills may mean this one is ready to show early speed in a race that might be looking for a pace setter.  Upset possiblity

RACE 3
6 Furlongs
Filly Clm 40,000

#8 Tough Business (7-2)
Improving filly and could have her choice of trips after drawing the outside post

#2 Natalie Paige (4-1)
First time synthetic and should like stretching back out.  Should be part of the early pace

#7 Gracie Ragazza (5-1)
If things fall apart up front this could be the one rolling late

RACE 4
One Mile and Sixteenth
Filly Clm 32,000

#3 Flashy Dame (5-1)
Looks very dangerous to me and this 5 year old mare appears to be in great form

#1 Silver Hustler (6-1)
Only second career synthetic start but a much softer spot for this effort so stands a serious chance

#9 Always a Chance (15-1)
Reclaim for the O'Neill barn 3 back so they like something for her at this level.  Tyler just missed with this one earlier in the meet at a double digit price

RACE 5
6.5 Furlongs
Filly MSW 75k

#9 Here's Bella (6-1)
Good debut effort over at Los Al and seems to be working forward for start #2.  Only ? is that Talamo was to jump on the 1 but that horse is now a scratch

#4 Keezheekoni (15-1)
Should benefit from the freshening and ran well fresh in her debut.  A return to that form and is right there in the thick of things

#2 Fashioned Lady (7-2)
Proctor/Drayden Van Dyke combo did a lot of damage at the Santa Anita meet and this one could get them rolling at Del Mar

RACE 6
6 Furlongs
State bred Filly 20k/N1X

#6 Only Josie Knows (9-2)
Canani trained filly looks ready to fire a big effort

#9 Midnight Lady (7-2)
has ran well over the Del Mar synthetic in the past and is training well leading up to the race

#1 Halo La (6-1)
A little cheap for the condition but holds some dangerous early speed. Will need to get loose to steal this one

RACE 7
5 Furlongs
Filly- Stakes "The Daisycutter Handicap"

#1 Master the Blues (4-1)
Super sharp mare who cuts back to sprinting.  Hess/Desormeaux combo has been lethal

#3 Tribal Spy (3-1)
Layed off since May but can't ignore a Tribal Rule sired horse on the synthetic

#4 Our Pure Creation (6-1)
Another layoff horse but does possess one synthetic effort that was a win at BHP by open lengths

RACE 8
One Mile and Sixteenth
Md 20,000

#7 No Dishonor (9-2)
Blinkers stay on and serious drop in class to try and win today.  Talamo stays aboard

#2 Super Reagan (5-2)
Ran too good to lose to stable mate on opening day.  Could be his day

#4 Stolen Property (6-1)
Surface switch and a drop in class for this gelding they only paid $6,000 for.  Saw something promising to keep him at a higher level up to today

Thank you all for reading and the support along the way.  It's my dream one day to make my name in the racing industry but I know that only happens with hard work and many humbling times.
Best of Luck and enjoy the Races,
JimmyQ
Follow me on Twiiter at @JimmyQVegas





Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Wednesday DEL MAR- August 6th PLAY OF THE DAY

RACE 8
6 Furlongs
Filly- Md 20,000

#10 Windy Starlite (6-1)

This doesn't appear to be the toughest group of bottom level filly maidens sprinting 6 furlongs.  Windy Starlite has only beat a total of 2 horses home in her 2 career starts but I like her for a few reasons today
  • Takes the biggest drop in the field from state bred MSW to bottom level maiden claimers
  • Cuts back in distance
  • She broke very alertly last time and showed some good natural speed without being encouraged
  • She draws outside most of the field today for the first time which should allow jockey Jorge A Vargas to be tactical and allow the early speed to set the fractions and the possiblity of making a sweeping move on the turn
  • Jockey change from Saul Arias to Vargas who is not a well known jock in Southern California but is a 19% rider YTD and 50% ITM jock. If a bigger name jock were on the horse her odds would probably be cut in half.  This definitely appears to be an upgrade
  • Baltas owns the horse which typically allows the trainer to be more aggressive and realistic with where the horse is placed b/c you're not trying to please an owner or protect a horse from being claimed for an owner
Good Luck today and hopefully we can cash this one
JimmyQ
Follow me on Twitter @JimmyQVegas
QRacing

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Sunday 8/3 DEL MAR- If at first you don't succeed TRY TRY AGAIN

RACE 9
1 MILE
Md SP Wt 75k

#5 Noble Bird (6-1)

Has a steady work tab since his last effort on June 7th and looking for him to take another step forward today.  Although trainer Mark Casse is off to what appears to be a slow start, you can't argue with 5 seconds.  Those seconds will eventually even out and his horses will start getting to the winners circle.  Stewart Elliott should know this horse well having ridden him in his last 2 races.  A little step forward and he could be graduating today

Good Luck,
JimmyQ 

Saturday, August 2, 2014

QRacing Saturday Play of the Day for DEL MAR

RACE 3
#1 IMAGE OF JOPLIN  (5-1)

Super sharp horse who takes a step up in class today but should take to the DEL MAR surface.  Best of Luck at the Races

JimmyQ

Friday, August 1, 2014

Friday at DEL MAR- August 1, 2014

RACE 5
5.5 Furlongs
F- Clm 8000

#9 Glorious Rebecca (5-2)

No big write up today but I think she's golden in this spot

JimmyQ

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

No DEL MAR Selections until Friday 8/1

All-
Due to a family emergency I will not have any DEL MAR selections listed until Friday.  I thought about trying to put up a selection Wednesday and Thursday but realized my mind needs to be 100% with my family.  I'll be fresh and ready for a BIG weekend at DEL MAR come Friday.
Thank you all for your support and understanding

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Sunday at DEL MAR- QRACING 3 Pack

It's been a tough go of things thus far at DEL MAR but in the game of RACING you never know when the tide may turn, so you just keep doing your homework and plugging away.  Today, I have a 3 pack for the Sunday Card

RACE 3
Mile and an Eighth
Clm 12,500

#2 Welcome Home Ryan  (5-1)
Blinkers added today which should ensure he is part of the early pace for trainer Jeff Mullins and looks to fire a much improved effort in his second time out of this barn


RACE 4
1 MILE
SF OC20k/N1X

#9 Casey's Clem (12-1)
2nd time Blinkers today running at this same level and in my opinion a rider upgrade from Gutierrez to Trujillo.  Out of a Papa Clem sire who has shown success over the synthetic surfaces so looking for him to like the Del Mar surface


RACE 10
6.5 Furlongs
SF Md 50,000

#11 Q'Viva (7-2)
With a name like this how can QRACING not be all over this horse.  All jokes aside, horse is out of the Tribal Rule sire who absolutely loves synthetic surfaces and she drops in for her easiest spot today and she has been improving.  Stretch out and adding Bejarano are all this horse may need to graduate.


All the best and enjoy the races
JimmyQ

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Saturday at DEL MAR and The QRacing Play of the Day


RACE 10
6.5 Furlongs
Clm 16,000 N2L
Purse $24,000

#3 The Tom Squad (8-1)

Should sit just off a hot pace up front but close enough that he won't be left with the impossible to do.  I think he should really take to the synthetic surface as well. Both factors make him a live horse for me today and the QRacing Play of the Day.

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Friday, July 25, 2014

QRACING for Friday at DEL MAR

I apologize but no play will be posted for today but I hope to be back tomorrow
Thank you,
JimmyQ

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Thursday at DEL MAR- July 24, 2014 QRACING PLAY OF THE DAY

Been a rough start to the DEL MAR meet which I'll get into greater detail tomorrow but no time to over analyze things and you have to keep firing away with confidence. 

RACE 6
1 Mile
Clm 16,000
Purse $24,000
For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races

#9 Counting Days (7-2)
Jockey Victor Espinoza finally broke thru yesterday and got out of his little slump and hopefully he can do the same for QRACING on this horse today.  This 4 year old gelding has been off since the end of April but does have a series of consistent works leading up to his return to the races.  He does appear to run well when fresh.  With the drop, he gets a group today that he fits well with and it will be interesting to see where Espinoza places him in the race.  It does appear he has some tactical speed and based on the way the main track is playing you don't want to drop back too far.  There are enough good signals to make this the QRACING PLAY OF THE DAY

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Wednesday at DEL MAR- July 23, 2014 QRACING PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 7
6.5 Furlongs
Purse $77,000
OC 40k/N1X

#8 Kate's Event (6-1)
I think we could see some money pour in on the Baffert horse, the #11, but I'm going to go with a horse who I think is spotted here to win a race.  Kate's Event and his connections are racing for a share of a lucrative $77,000 purse today.  Ted West claimed this horse 5 weeks ago for $62,000 and has since put 3 maintenance drill into this 7 year old gelding.  West has not had much success of late, so this in my opinion is an aggressive drop by the connections on their initial investment to win. If the horse is taken today, they'll get back the original $40,000 of that investment, and if they win they'll also get 60% of the purse. (Another $46,200 for a total of $86,200)  This is well worth the aggressive spotting of Kate's Event.

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Sunday at DEL MAR- July 20, 2014 QRacing PLAYS OF THE DAY

Two PLAYS for Today out at DEL MAR
RACE 9
6 Furlongs
Filly- OC 40k/N1X
Three Years Old and Upward

#9 Provenance

Lots of upside here for me with this 4 year old filly trained by Mike Puype.  Solid effort last out being beaten by a nose down the hill at Santa Anita.  I think the return to the synthetic surface is a PLUS for this horse and she'll move forward on it.  A couple solid works since the last effort and Tyler Baze stays aboard.  If she can improve slightly today, then she has a great shot to find herself on top for win honors.  She caught my eye and is the first of two QRacing PLAYS OF THE DAY

RACE 11
7 Furlongs
Md 20,000
Purse $25,000
Maidens, Three Years Old and Upward

#9 Play Maker (6-1)

This field is made up of a few droppers who today are running for career low price tags.  I'm going to stick with a horse who ran at this level last time out and the looks like he is starting to figure out what the game is all about.  This 4 year old gelding for the George Papaprodromou barn has recently been doing his best running late. Last time at Santa Anita, he closed over 3 lengths on the top two finishers in the lane which isn't an easy task over that surface.  There isn't a ton of speed in here today, so it's quite possible that Jockey Alonso Quinonez will have this one placed closer to the pace like his start last March at Santa Anita.  That day, he was sitting only a length or so off of pretty quick fractions and posted a career best beyer against a much saltier group.  Looking for Alonso Q to get QRacing to the winner's circle in the second QRacing PLAY OF THE DAY.

Best of Luck and Enjoy the Races,
JimmyQ   


Saturday, July 19, 2014

Saturday at DEL MAR- July 19, 2014 QRacing PLAY OF THE DAY

RACE 11
1 MILE (TURF)
Filly- MSW
Three Years Old and Upward

#9 Sweet as a Rose (9-2)

We are going to have to wait the entire card for the QRacing PLAY OF THE DAY but I think it's going to be worth it.  I'm not going to get into great detail other than to say I've been waiting for this horse to run and it will be my Largest Wager thus far at the DEL MAR meet.

Good Luck,
JimmyQ

Friday, July 18, 2014

Friday at DEL MAR- July 18, 2014 QRacing PLAY OF THE DAY

RACE 3
1 1/16 MILES (TURF)
State-bred OC 20k/N1X
Three Years Old and Upward

#2 Frensham (15-1)
He exits a very productive turf stakes race from June 21st at Santa Anita where the second and third place finishers both came back to run BIG yesterday and finish second and third respectively in the Oceanside Stakes.  Many could argue Frensham wasn't much of a factor in that Santa Anita race when he finished last of 9 and beaten over 15 lengths.  I'd actually argue that he was for 2/3 of that race until they turned for home and he basically ran up the backside of a horse that was coming out.  This caused Gutierrez to check hard and put the whip away for another day.  Today just might be that day, as he takes a significant drop in class and to a group that he actually belongs with.  Notice the last time he ran against a group he fit with, he broke his maiden at Santa Anita by over 2 lengths on the dirt.  Doug O'Neill and the ownership group have been pretty aggressive with this 3 year old colt in his 7 lifetime starts, with  4 of those 7 starts being against stakes company. Note that 2 of those stakes were before he even broke his maiden so clearly his connections think he has a bright future.  I'm looking for him to put up a BIG effort in this spot, and therefore is the QRacing PLAY OF THE DAY

Good Luck,
JimmyQ   

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Opening Day at DEL MAR- July 17, 2014 QRACING PLAY OF THE DAY

RACE 4
1 Mile
Md 20,000
Purse $25,000
Three Years Old and Upward

#2 Super Reagan (8-1)
This Peter Miller trained 3 year old gelding was claimed 2 back at this same level but sprinting from the Doug O'Neill barn.  I think what Miller discovered is he claimed a very sound animal.  In the following 18 days after the claim he worked him 4 furlongs and then put him in a MCL 40,000 race down the hill and in my opinion it was simply because the horse was fit to race and just needed to run.  I truly believe this is the ideal spot today.  Since that turf effort where he finished 7th, Miller has put 3 works into him (2 of which are solid 6F drills) to have him ready for today.  Turf was never going to be this horses best surface but I believe synthetic is.  Note his best lifetime beyer was over a synthetic surface at Betfair Hollywood Park and against a much tougher group then he'll face today.  Super Reagan is sired by Successful Appeal who is an A+ synthetic sire according to Brisnet sire stats.  Jockey Elvis Trujillo stays aboard and he stretches out for the first time.  I think it's all systems ago today and why he is the QRacing PLAY OF THE DAY

Good Luck
JimmyQ

Sunday, June 22, 2014

QRacing and a Sunday Pick 6 Carryover at Santa Anita

Here is how I'll be playing the Pick 6 carryover today at Santa Anita today.  I'll have a main ticket and a back up ticket.  I'll provide analysis below on the Main Ticket and break down the horses in order of preference for today.
Main Ticket is $1080
5/ 4,5,7/ 1,4,6/ ALL/ 1,3,7,8,9/ 1,8
Back up Ticket is $288
2,3,5,7/ 4,5,7/ 1,4,6/ 3,5/ 1,9/8
Total Investment is $1368

Now the break down of the horses on this ticket in order of preference
RACE 4
#5 Nikki Allyn (6-5)
Big dropper and a surface switch from turf to dirt for the Peter Miller barn.  Some might see this drop as a red flag but I actually think it's putting the horse where she belongs and should win.  The owners only paid $30,000 for this horse so if she wins and is claimed for 20k today then no big deal.  I think this horse will probably be 3-5 to start the sequence

RACE 5
#5 Heat Trap (5-2)
She was impressive last time going down the hill and today is stretching out to a mile.  I think there is a good chance Talamo and her find themselves on the lead in this one.  She might be tough to run down on the lead if she gets an easy lead

#7 Queen of the Sand (9-2)
She had some trouble in her US debut when she broke slow and the horse next to her veered in and basically wiped her and all chances of winning out.  It cost her a good 7-8 lengths out of the gate.  A big plus too is that Mike Smith picks up the mount so a HUGE rider upgrade from Valdivia.  She cuts back to a mile today and should have something left in the lane

#4 Oscar Party (3-1)
Horse is 0 for 5 at today's distance but note last time she ran at this level and at this distance she just missed by a length while posting a 90 beyer speed figure.  Based on the replay of her last race I think she was a little uncomfortable and wasn't noted in the form.  She should be much more competitive today

Race 7
#3 Story to Tell (3-1)
What an impressive maiden score when Talamo won in hand and basically never asked the horse to run.  Ultra impressive and I think this horse, although the ML second choice, will be your favorite when they go to post

#5 Wake up Nick (4-1)
I had a hard time separating this horses performance from Story to Tell.  The ease at which he won gave me a WOW moment and he won't need to improve much to find himself back in the winners circle. It appears Paul Reddam and Doug O'Neill have some nice 2 year olds this year and this could be another one of them

#7 Henry's Holiday (6-1)
I think the outside post today for the other O'Neill trainee is going to really benefit him.  This one has a shot

#2 Kristi's Copilot (4-1)
It appears Gryder might have found himself on a nice 2 year old colt for the Art Sherman barn.  Note his win and #5 Wake Up Nick's win were against State bred company but the California crop over the past few years has been strong, so that's no concern of mine. Certainly Capable

#4 Holiday Camp (2-1)
Some might be shocked to see me put the ML favorite and the Bob Baffert trainee as my 5th preference out of 6 horses.  To me I just wasn't that impressed with his debut win.  He earned the highest beyer in today's field at a 77 but I prefer others here.  Sure there is a chance I'm wrong but that's why I hit the ALL button since I'm not a fan of the favorite. (Although certainly not a toss out)

#6 Homer Matt (8-1)
Largest ML in the field and today is the debut for this 2 year old colt out of the Peter Miller barn.  They paid $625,000 for him so they definitely think he has a big future.  This horse is capable of firing a huge effort first time out but will it be enough to take down this tough group?

RACE 8
#1 Seduire (8-5)
Impressive debut win for the Hollendorfer trainee.  She breaks from the rail again and I expect Nakatani to try and go gate to wire.  She looked a little green to me in the stretch last time so I do think she has room to improve today.  If she doesn't switch leads down the lane, someone will probably come get her.

#9 Enchanting (9-5)
Ran second in her debut to Seduire but with added furlong today may help her run down Seduire.  Definitely has a big shot and wouldn't be surprised if she goes forward favored over Seduire despite losing to her last time

#7 Sea Moon (8-1)
A debut winner that didn't rack up a BIG beyer speed figure.  I think her win was much more impressive than the 49 figure she received.  Also, Talamo didn't get to the bottom of this one in career start #1.  The additional furlong should be no problem for her.  Maybe the shocker of the field.

#3 My Fiona (8-1)
Ran down a tired group of horses to win her debut.  She looked like she was really hard ridden to get going.  If this race totally breaks down up front this could be the one coming late

#8 Robo Girl (8-1)
Broke her maiden almost 2 months ago and should be part of the early speed.  She may need a lot to go her way today to win.

RACE 9
#8 Willy Be Wild (7-2)
Gets Lasix for career start #2 today and I think breaking from the outside post will be a huge advantage for him today as he was a bit bothered inside of horses last time.  A BIG chance to move forward.

#1 Robert E. Lee (5-1)
Broke sharp last time out but was really not allowed to run by the jock that day.  I think it cost him any chance at winning.  Encouraging to see a switch to jockey Kent Desormeaux who should carve out a better trip for this one today.  I don't love horses breaking inside down the hill but I think this one is versatile enough to either put on or close to the lead or take back and make one big run.

Best of Luck out there to all that are playing today!
JimmyQ
@JimmyQVegas




Monday, January 27, 2014

Trying to Make Sense of the Final Chaotic Moments at NHC15

We may never know the truth of what transpired in the final moments leading up to the 9th Race at Santa Anita, which was the final mandatory race of NHC15.  It certainly opened up the possibility of contest manipulation or at the very least hedging, whichever way you view such a strategy.  The difference between the winner's share and runner-up's was $550,000 ($750k to the winner, 200k to runner-up)  The NTRA opened up this possibility by exposing players selections with 1 minute to post while pari-mutuel pools were still open.  Here is what we know at this point
  • Heading into the last race long time leader Jose Arias held a slight edge on Nick Alpino by $4.10, Tony Brice by $26.60, and Mike Piccola by $27.40
  • Here are the selections for the final mandatory race for the Top 4
  1. Arias (8)
  2. Alpino (2)
  3. Brice (1)
  4. Piccola (7) 
  • Once the picks were displayed to the gallery, including final table participants, Tony Brice's selection of the 1 Fit to Rule, out of the Doug O'Neill barn, took two big hits at the window dropping him from 8-1 all the way down to 6-1 which no one watching the simulcast feed knew until after they crossed the wire.  When Fit to Rule finished on top and his odds were displayed at 6-1 this assured Arias of the NHC15 Title.  Brice's rally came up $1.20 short but by the way he was celebrating when they crossed the wire there is a good chance he thought he pulled the upset, at the would be odds of 8-1.
  • There was a large discrepancy in the win/place pool on this horse as it paid $15.60 to win and a whopping $9.80 to place.  That place price is more consistent with an 8-1 winner and suggested about 10k was added to the win pool on this horse in the final minute 
  • The current format certainly opened up the possibility of hedging and contest manipulation as documented by well respected handicapper, contest player, and horseplayers reality star, Christian Hellmers tweet following the days events
Nhc format must keep choices hidden nxt yr to prevnt finalists from phoning in a 10k bet to alter odds of opponents. @DRFSteven_Crist @NTRA

  • Did Hellmers know something?  He later said he was referring to what could happen in future years but my perception of Christian is he is a smart, stand up guy who wouldn't specifically out somebody.  It was interesting this tweet was sent out an hour after congratulating Jose Arias on the title.  What did Christian possibly learn in the 60 minutes following the congratulatory tweet?
  • For industry professionals such as Mike Watchmaker to say today "This rumor is ridiculous and couldn't happen" shows how far behind the times some of our industry professionals are.  Let me remind everyone of a few things
  • There were 60 minutes between the 3rd and 4th mandatory race, giving Arias and his following plenty of time to draft a strategy ,along with other participants to do the same.  I know a few of Arias' contest colleages and to say they couldn't make this happen would be insulting them.  They are far sharper than this and have the financial backing to make it reality within a matter of seconds or the push of a button.  In fact, some of his closest contest friends, whom I won't name here, are equipped at contests with laptops watching pools/odds and are what you would consider math guru's/pool experts.
  • Peter T. Fornatale (@loomsboldy) who covered the NHC Tour and Championship all year long for DRF.com promises to shed some light on this very subject later in the week
By the way, absolutely no truth to the rumor about contest manipulation at #NHC15 I'll break it all down later this weekPeter T. Fornatale ‏@loomsboldly

  • I hope Fornatale is able to supply us with real facts as to where these 2 big wagers came from and not simply speculation or quotes from the Arias camp.  If you interview Arias, he isn't going to say "With the 60 minute break the NHC supplied us between races 3 & 4, a group of of my contest friends and I started talking strategy.  They told me to concentrate on picking winners, and they'd keep an eye on the pool totals.  We knew with the position I was in, that I had a good chunk of change to hedge with.  They asked me what I was comfortable with and I told them 20k. The rest is history, and it couldn't have worked out any better." 
  • Again, I'm not saying this is how it unfolded but we'd never know if it were, and to say it couldn't is being ignorant (AKA Watchmaker).  I did find it interesting that Arias even admitted mid race he learned the horse went from 8-1 to 6-1 (Again they were watching the pools on the computer), and I find it very fascinating they were so focused on this particular horse.  Logic tells me, in that position if you just get your horse to win or run second, you win the contest, so why be so concerned about others selections?
  • There is speculation that such a large wager right before post time could have come in from the Doug O'Neill camp as they do have a reputation of being blue collar gamblers who aren't afraid to place a wager or two.
  • I reached out to O'Neill via twitter about this very subject, but have yet to receive a response
@DougONeill1 Congrats on the Fit to Rule win! Can you confirm or deny if someone associated with the horse made a large late Win wager? 6-1

  • Regardless of what may or may not have unfolded in the final minutes, Jose Arias was a very deserving winner as he took them gate to wire and proved to be the smartest man in the room and the NHC15 Champion.
JimmyQVegas
@JimmyQVegas

Thursday, January 23, 2014

$419,541 Pick 6 Carryover at Santa Anita!!!!

It has been a while since I have posted a blog but with such a dynamic carryover today in the Pick 6 at Santa Anita, I thought there was no better time than now to share how I'm playing the sequence today.  I will be playing 2 tickets today.  A main ticket in the amount of $540 and a back up ticket for $96 with my total investment being $636.  Carryovers like this don't come along every week so when they do it's best in my opinion if you take a shot at them.  Yes, you can go a very long time between cashing such wagers but if you're looking for the opportunity of a larger score, this wager is for you.  In races that I've selected multiple horses I will be listing them in numeric order, not in order of preference.

Main Ticket $540   7/ 1,2,5/ 1,3,4,5,6,8/ 2,3,4,7,8/ 2,4,7/ 3  (I will only give analysis on the Main Ticket
Back up Ticket $96  2,4/ 1,5/ 1,5,8/ 2,8/ 4/ 1,3
Race 3
#7  Hotradamus  (7-2 ML)
  This horse is a single on my main ticket and is the 3rd choice on the ML.  In my opinion the 2 ML favorites both have big question marks while this horse seems primed to run a great race.  The 5 He's a Dance Star at 2-1 ML was claimed last out while fading badly at a short price.  Maybe the horse didn't like the synthetic surface at BHP but I'm not buying it.  #2 A Toast to You is the 5-2 comes off a pretty long layoff after a Stakes win at SA in October.  The horse was a scratch on 11/15 and notice from 11/15 to 12/28 there were no reported workouts so something went a miss for this 5 year old gelding.  Looking for Hotradamus to run them down in the stretch

Race 4
#1 White Front Freddy
  Breaking from the rail and what I like about this one is last time was involved in a speed duel and finished 3rd beaten 10 lengths but take note that the other horses he dueled with last time tired badly and this horse still stayed on for 3rd.  More impressive than it looked on paper

#2 Gutsy Ruler
  Have to respect a first timer out of the Tribal Rule sire.  This isn't the strongest of groups so if Puype has this one fit could be right there

#5 New Order
  He is coming out of what I thought was a strong race and made a nice middle move but just didn't have that burst in the stretch and finished 6th.  They shorten the horse up from 6.5 to 5.5 furlongs today and put a couple works in him.  Should like the turn back

Race 5- First off this was a difficult race for me as many horses could step up and win this
#1 We Have Lift Off
  Going from a sprint to a route and from dirt to turf.  This 5 year old is protected in only his 2nd lifetime start.  Should show some speed from the rail on the stretchout.  Could be dangerous

#3 Stake Hunter
  2nd career start for this 4 year old gelding and stays on the lawn but stretches out.  I always respect Jeff Mullins on the turf.  I think it is what he does best

#4  El Tovar
  I threw this horse in b/c he looks to be on the improve and his 2 career turf starts are his best lifetime races.  Wouldn't totally shock me if this horse ran very well today at a nice price

#5  Thunder Cole
  Blinkers come off on this 4 year old gelding who has been knocking on the door of breaking his maiden.  No the toughest of groups so definitely should be in the mix

#6 Awesome Prospect
  This is a price play that I threw in b/c the horse seems to be improving and has never tried the grass so he is not a confirmed loser.  Blinkers go on today and he really is a mystery horse

#8 Through My Eyes
  Jeff Mullins other horse in the race and again I respect everything he throws on the grass.  I think this is the horse to beat even though he has never tried turf. 

Race 6- Another wide open race

#2 Warren's Joe T
  This horse has been very consistent of late but might have been up against too stiff of competition last time out.  They drop the horse from 16k to 8k and the class relief should definitely help

#3 Brown Boss
  Another one who should be much more competitive with the class relief.  Talamo took care of this horse in the stretch last time when he was beaten 10 lengths so he should come back very fresh today

#4  Red Sharp Humor
  Has been running against similar company but appears to be the one they will need to catch as Pedroza will most likely be aggressive out of the gate and try to get an easy lead

#7 Majestic Moment
  This is certainly a price play and would be a major upset if he won.  I don't love the fact that VanDyke is on board today as this kid is shakey at best.  I did like the way the horse ran last time as he appeared to be doing it nice and easy and tugging at the rider so he was feeling good about himself.  The one good thing about a lesser known or quality jock is you certainly get an improved price

#8 Only the Gold
  Exits a very strong race and although beaten 8 lengths at this same level that race was loaded for 8k claimers.  Fits again with this group today

Race 7
#2 Mangita
  Very impressive stretch run last time when he fought on the rail to be beaten by a 1/2 length to a 1-2 favorite.  I liked the killer instinct this horse had and if it comes down to a stretch run again she may just not let them beat her

#4 Miss Well Molded
  Should be your favorite in the field and probably too wants to be on the front end.  Horse drops in from Allowance company but I'm not all concerned about the drop since these connections bought her at a similar price 2 races back.  She won a non winners of 1 race for them so I think they feel they made a nice chunk of change on her so let's put her in a spot where she can win today

#7 Lil Swiss Echo
  Her last effort is more visually impressive than the 73 beyer she received last time out.  She sat patiently and exploded in the stretch to win easily.  If I had any concern it's that she doesn't let them get to far in front as I don't think you want to be closing from too far back on the turf route races at SA.  Very capable of making it 2 in a row

Race 8
#3 Runaway Que
  With a name like that, how could I not single him?!?!?!  In all seriousness this horse in my opinion should of won his last race as he dueled and fought gamely in the stretch only to be beaten by a horse on the complete outside that he never saw.  What I mean is had this horse been down closer to him, I think he was so game he wouldn't have let anyone pass him.  A repeat effort from last time and he could be graduating today

I will also post pictures of my 2 tickets as I do play what I post.  If you want to follow along and root me home I'd greatly appreciate.  Thanks for taking the time to read and I hope I helped share where my mind is with some of these horses

Best of Luck,
JimmyQ