Monday, January 27, 2014

Trying to Make Sense of the Final Chaotic Moments at NHC15

We may never know the truth of what transpired in the final moments leading up to the 9th Race at Santa Anita, which was the final mandatory race of NHC15.  It certainly opened up the possibility of contest manipulation or at the very least hedging, whichever way you view such a strategy.  The difference between the winner's share and runner-up's was $550,000 ($750k to the winner, 200k to runner-up)  The NTRA opened up this possibility by exposing players selections with 1 minute to post while pari-mutuel pools were still open.  Here is what we know at this point
  • Heading into the last race long time leader Jose Arias held a slight edge on Nick Alpino by $4.10, Tony Brice by $26.60, and Mike Piccola by $27.40
  • Here are the selections for the final mandatory race for the Top 4
  1. Arias (8)
  2. Alpino (2)
  3. Brice (1)
  4. Piccola (7) 
  • Once the picks were displayed to the gallery, including final table participants, Tony Brice's selection of the 1 Fit to Rule, out of the Doug O'Neill barn, took two big hits at the window dropping him from 8-1 all the way down to 6-1 which no one watching the simulcast feed knew until after they crossed the wire.  When Fit to Rule finished on top and his odds were displayed at 6-1 this assured Arias of the NHC15 Title.  Brice's rally came up $1.20 short but by the way he was celebrating when they crossed the wire there is a good chance he thought he pulled the upset, at the would be odds of 8-1.
  • There was a large discrepancy in the win/place pool on this horse as it paid $15.60 to win and a whopping $9.80 to place.  That place price is more consistent with an 8-1 winner and suggested about 10k was added to the win pool on this horse in the final minute 
  • The current format certainly opened up the possibility of hedging and contest manipulation as documented by well respected handicapper, contest player, and horseplayers reality star, Christian Hellmers tweet following the days events
Nhc format must keep choices hidden nxt yr to prevnt finalists from phoning in a 10k bet to alter odds of opponents. @DRFSteven_Crist @NTRA

  • Did Hellmers know something?  He later said he was referring to what could happen in future years but my perception of Christian is he is a smart, stand up guy who wouldn't specifically out somebody.  It was interesting this tweet was sent out an hour after congratulating Jose Arias on the title.  What did Christian possibly learn in the 60 minutes following the congratulatory tweet?
  • For industry professionals such as Mike Watchmaker to say today "This rumor is ridiculous and couldn't happen" shows how far behind the times some of our industry professionals are.  Let me remind everyone of a few things
  • There were 60 minutes between the 3rd and 4th mandatory race, giving Arias and his following plenty of time to draft a strategy ,along with other participants to do the same.  I know a few of Arias' contest colleages and to say they couldn't make this happen would be insulting them.  They are far sharper than this and have the financial backing to make it reality within a matter of seconds or the push of a button.  In fact, some of his closest contest friends, whom I won't name here, are equipped at contests with laptops watching pools/odds and are what you would consider math guru's/pool experts.
  • Peter T. Fornatale (@loomsboldy) who covered the NHC Tour and Championship all year long for DRF.com promises to shed some light on this very subject later in the week
By the way, absolutely no truth to the rumor about contest manipulation at #NHC15 I'll break it all down later this weekPeter T. Fornatale ‏@loomsboldly

  • I hope Fornatale is able to supply us with real facts as to where these 2 big wagers came from and not simply speculation or quotes from the Arias camp.  If you interview Arias, he isn't going to say "With the 60 minute break the NHC supplied us between races 3 & 4, a group of of my contest friends and I started talking strategy.  They told me to concentrate on picking winners, and they'd keep an eye on the pool totals.  We knew with the position I was in, that I had a good chunk of change to hedge with.  They asked me what I was comfortable with and I told them 20k. The rest is history, and it couldn't have worked out any better." 
  • Again, I'm not saying this is how it unfolded but we'd never know if it were, and to say it couldn't is being ignorant (AKA Watchmaker).  I did find it interesting that Arias even admitted mid race he learned the horse went from 8-1 to 6-1 (Again they were watching the pools on the computer), and I find it very fascinating they were so focused on this particular horse.  Logic tells me, in that position if you just get your horse to win or run second, you win the contest, so why be so concerned about others selections?
  • There is speculation that such a large wager right before post time could have come in from the Doug O'Neill camp as they do have a reputation of being blue collar gamblers who aren't afraid to place a wager or two.
  • I reached out to O'Neill via twitter about this very subject, but have yet to receive a response
@DougONeill1 Congrats on the Fit to Rule win! Can you confirm or deny if someone associated with the horse made a large late Win wager? 6-1

  • Regardless of what may or may not have unfolded in the final minutes, Jose Arias was a very deserving winner as he took them gate to wire and proved to be the smartest man in the room and the NHC15 Champion.
JimmyQVegas
@JimmyQVegas

Thursday, January 23, 2014

$419,541 Pick 6 Carryover at Santa Anita!!!!

It has been a while since I have posted a blog but with such a dynamic carryover today in the Pick 6 at Santa Anita, I thought there was no better time than now to share how I'm playing the sequence today.  I will be playing 2 tickets today.  A main ticket in the amount of $540 and a back up ticket for $96 with my total investment being $636.  Carryovers like this don't come along every week so when they do it's best in my opinion if you take a shot at them.  Yes, you can go a very long time between cashing such wagers but if you're looking for the opportunity of a larger score, this wager is for you.  In races that I've selected multiple horses I will be listing them in numeric order, not in order of preference.

Main Ticket $540   7/ 1,2,5/ 1,3,4,5,6,8/ 2,3,4,7,8/ 2,4,7/ 3  (I will only give analysis on the Main Ticket
Back up Ticket $96  2,4/ 1,5/ 1,5,8/ 2,8/ 4/ 1,3
Race 3
#7  Hotradamus  (7-2 ML)
  This horse is a single on my main ticket and is the 3rd choice on the ML.  In my opinion the 2 ML favorites both have big question marks while this horse seems primed to run a great race.  The 5 He's a Dance Star at 2-1 ML was claimed last out while fading badly at a short price.  Maybe the horse didn't like the synthetic surface at BHP but I'm not buying it.  #2 A Toast to You is the 5-2 comes off a pretty long layoff after a Stakes win at SA in October.  The horse was a scratch on 11/15 and notice from 11/15 to 12/28 there were no reported workouts so something went a miss for this 5 year old gelding.  Looking for Hotradamus to run them down in the stretch

Race 4
#1 White Front Freddy
  Breaking from the rail and what I like about this one is last time was involved in a speed duel and finished 3rd beaten 10 lengths but take note that the other horses he dueled with last time tired badly and this horse still stayed on for 3rd.  More impressive than it looked on paper

#2 Gutsy Ruler
  Have to respect a first timer out of the Tribal Rule sire.  This isn't the strongest of groups so if Puype has this one fit could be right there

#5 New Order
  He is coming out of what I thought was a strong race and made a nice middle move but just didn't have that burst in the stretch and finished 6th.  They shorten the horse up from 6.5 to 5.5 furlongs today and put a couple works in him.  Should like the turn back

Race 5- First off this was a difficult race for me as many horses could step up and win this
#1 We Have Lift Off
  Going from a sprint to a route and from dirt to turf.  This 5 year old is protected in only his 2nd lifetime start.  Should show some speed from the rail on the stretchout.  Could be dangerous

#3 Stake Hunter
  2nd career start for this 4 year old gelding and stays on the lawn but stretches out.  I always respect Jeff Mullins on the turf.  I think it is what he does best

#4  El Tovar
  I threw this horse in b/c he looks to be on the improve and his 2 career turf starts are his best lifetime races.  Wouldn't totally shock me if this horse ran very well today at a nice price

#5  Thunder Cole
  Blinkers come off on this 4 year old gelding who has been knocking on the door of breaking his maiden.  No the toughest of groups so definitely should be in the mix

#6 Awesome Prospect
  This is a price play that I threw in b/c the horse seems to be improving and has never tried the grass so he is not a confirmed loser.  Blinkers go on today and he really is a mystery horse

#8 Through My Eyes
  Jeff Mullins other horse in the race and again I respect everything he throws on the grass.  I think this is the horse to beat even though he has never tried turf. 

Race 6- Another wide open race

#2 Warren's Joe T
  This horse has been very consistent of late but might have been up against too stiff of competition last time out.  They drop the horse from 16k to 8k and the class relief should definitely help

#3 Brown Boss
  Another one who should be much more competitive with the class relief.  Talamo took care of this horse in the stretch last time when he was beaten 10 lengths so he should come back very fresh today

#4  Red Sharp Humor
  Has been running against similar company but appears to be the one they will need to catch as Pedroza will most likely be aggressive out of the gate and try to get an easy lead

#7 Majestic Moment
  This is certainly a price play and would be a major upset if he won.  I don't love the fact that VanDyke is on board today as this kid is shakey at best.  I did like the way the horse ran last time as he appeared to be doing it nice and easy and tugging at the rider so he was feeling good about himself.  The one good thing about a lesser known or quality jock is you certainly get an improved price

#8 Only the Gold
  Exits a very strong race and although beaten 8 lengths at this same level that race was loaded for 8k claimers.  Fits again with this group today

Race 7
#2 Mangita
  Very impressive stretch run last time when he fought on the rail to be beaten by a 1/2 length to a 1-2 favorite.  I liked the killer instinct this horse had and if it comes down to a stretch run again she may just not let them beat her

#4 Miss Well Molded
  Should be your favorite in the field and probably too wants to be on the front end.  Horse drops in from Allowance company but I'm not all concerned about the drop since these connections bought her at a similar price 2 races back.  She won a non winners of 1 race for them so I think they feel they made a nice chunk of change on her so let's put her in a spot where she can win today

#7 Lil Swiss Echo
  Her last effort is more visually impressive than the 73 beyer she received last time out.  She sat patiently and exploded in the stretch to win easily.  If I had any concern it's that she doesn't let them get to far in front as I don't think you want to be closing from too far back on the turf route races at SA.  Very capable of making it 2 in a row

Race 8
#3 Runaway Que
  With a name like that, how could I not single him?!?!?!  In all seriousness this horse in my opinion should of won his last race as he dueled and fought gamely in the stretch only to be beaten by a horse on the complete outside that he never saw.  What I mean is had this horse been down closer to him, I think he was so game he wouldn't have let anyone pass him.  A repeat effort from last time and he could be graduating today

I will also post pictures of my 2 tickets as I do play what I post.  If you want to follow along and root me home I'd greatly appreciate.  Thanks for taking the time to read and I hope I helped share where my mind is with some of these horses

Best of Luck,
JimmyQ