Friday July 19th, 2013
Our first Friday card of the Del Mar meet, and you have to love the 4pm Pacific start as it is a great way for the East Coaster's to kick off their Friday night and for us West Coaster's, it's our excuse to duck out of work early! I will list my top 3 picks for each race and expand a little as to why I like each of the horses
First Race
#4 Toomanytomatoes Cody Autrey sends out the 4 horse in this race and he looks to be spotted beautifully. With the scratch of the 7 Camelia Rose this will be your favorite as they go to post. Many want to make a big deal of Autrey struggles in Southern California over the past couple of years. He was 0 for 18 at the BHP meet that ended last week and was 0 for 18 last year at Del Mar. Well before you hold that against him let me point out a couple of things He broke thru on opening day with a winner in the last race with Spring Up that paid $12.40. Due to his struggles last year at Del Mar, they decided to do things diffferently this year. Autrey brought his tack out west for the BHP meet to claim some horses and get settled in for Del Mar. Although a trainer never wants to lose, I promise you their main objective all along was to win once they got to Del Mar. He trains for his prominent ownership group of Ywachetta & James Driver. So now back to Toomanytomatoes. They dipped in and claimed this horse for 40k back on May 3rd. They since put this horse in back to back allowance races, and in my opinion did this to ensure the horse would be theirs when they got to Del Mar to run for the bigger purses. So today, they drop the horse back in for 40k and I guarantee you the horse will be claimed out of this race but if she wins today the connections also pick up a nice $31,800 check along with the $40,000 they'll get for the horse.
#5 Meltarib Ran second to Toomanytomatoes 2 back and they might just finish 1/2 again today
#3 Distant Image Horse is a bit cheap but seems sound and and sitting on a solid effort. She exits her career best synthentic beyer number and she appears to be a better turf horse, so she has a chance to move up today
Second Race
#2 Manewal Cody Autrey daily double anyone? Horse drops off the face of the earth in terms of condition levels so someone might wonder is this horse sound? I think drops like this are less suspicious at a prestigious meet like Del Mar where the purse money is great and everyone once to get their picture taken. Again, I think this horse gets claimed from the connections and the workout on June 19th says this horse should be ready
#4 Luz Atticus Light bulb seemed to come on last time and he exits an open condition 16k claimer and is in today with non winners of two life. Should land a perfect trip
#3 Bubba Fizz Gets back to sprinting today at 3 straight route races and might be heard from down the lane late
Third Race
#1 G'night This is a morning line price at 10-1 and I think this race might just set up perfectly for the horse where he can sit in behind all the speed and try one big move late. I think the horse is moving in the right direction and I liked seeing Espinoza ride the horse back
#4 My Slew I had a hard time deciding between the 1 & 4 in this race as my top pick. I like this horse because he seems to run well after being freshened. The workout on July 6th was an impressive move from gate and note that Martin Garcia has ridden this horse in both of his wins
#8 Field Report Too many second place finishes for me to endorse a horse like this to win. If he wins, I tip my cap but he has burned a lot of gambler's money along the way. Note in his 11 lifetime starts he has lost as the betting favorite in 7 of those races as well as being under even money in 5 of the starts. If another horse looks him eye to eye in the stretch he might just settled for second or third again.
Fourth Race
#2 Magic Number The horse should really enjoy the class relief today and she drops in for a new career high low of 20k. To me this makes perfect sense because the connections only paid $15,000 for her at the Keeneland September sale in 2011. For how cheap of a purchase she was it's time to start making some money on her and putting her at the level she belongs
#6 Hard Buns This filly too should enjoy the class relief as today is the first time she has ever been in for a tag. The only thing I don't love about her is that she never really improved when she shipped into Northern California where the competition should have been friendlier. I think the connections have finally realized this may be where she belongs
#9 Fata Morgana In only her second career start she has a chance to improve and try to pull a shocker
Fifth Race
#10 Tribal Tattoo I love tribal rule sired horses on the synthetic surfaces and Doug O'Neill seems to really of taken his time bringing this filly to the races. She has been working since April and gave her a little extra time off between drills once they got longer. Some could view this as a negative but I think he was just giving her a chance to come along slowly.
#Beth's My Babe With the addition of blinkers and a race under her belt she should move forward today. Connections may have tipped her hand with the blowout workout on this surface a few days ago. Watch the tote board and if the $ shows up she is probably very live
#She's Flush Orozco will probably have to send hard from the rail and just hope she can possibly clear the field. If she gets loose she could be dangerous
Sixth Race
#1 Brother Pete This colt has come along nicely and seems to be improving with each race and I think as they continue to stretch him out he should only get stronger. He needs to once again move forward to beat this group today but I think he sits a good pocket trip and tries to pounce on them turning for home
#8 Pure Loyalty What can you say about Gary Stevens other than this guy is a hell of a rider. You have to take note of any horse he rides because he seems to give them a perfect ride 99% of the time. I like the direction this horse is going in and he should be right there with a chance to win
#9 Horizon Sky The horse has been knocking on the door in his last 2 efforts and you have to respect Jeff Mullins as he had a great BHP meet
Seventh Race
#1 Sprouts I'd be concerned about this horse drawing the rail if she didn't have speed but she looks like she has enough speed to carve out a good trip. She really moved up nicely last time after the additon of lasix
#4 Time for Angie She might be Sprouts toughest competition in here. She seems to be working well heading into this spot as she tries to turn the table on Sprouts
#2 Pay the Debt Longshot who would be a shocker if she won but she might be around for a minor reward. She shocked 2 back to break her maiden at 19-1
Eighth Race
#2 Brannaman After dropping the horse in for 40k last time and stretching him out, Baffert gave the horse a little time to recover and brings him back sprinting for the same 40k tag, which I think is this horses game. The race 3 back at Santa Anita was a very strong MSW race where he weakened late after briefly taking the lead. It is put up or shut up time for the 4 year old gelding today
#4 Major Affair Ron Ellis drops the horse in for a tag for the first time after disappointing last out at Hollywood. Horse took a little action that day going off at 5-2 so maybe the class relief is just what this horse needs
#8 Sir Searsucker The 3 year old gelding drops into Maiden Claiming ranks for the first time and shortens back up to 6.5 furlongs. It would be special for Mitchell to win some races at Del Mar with his son-in-law riding for him. I won't be shocked if this horse is getting his picture taken
Best of Luck to everyone playing the races today.
All the Best,
JimmyQ
No comments:
Post a Comment