Friday July 26th
Our second Friday card at Del Mar and here is to hoping the only thing that is cold today are the ICE COLD BEERS! These late afternoon post times at Del Mar are what summer is all about. The main track has seemed to be favoring inside speed so at some point these speed horses are going to get over bet & the jocks are going to get too agressive. In my opinion, it will all start to even itself out soon. I do not let what is a perceived bias affect my handicapping as it can cause a handicapper to get lazy. Plain and simple, I'm looking for the "live" horses whether they be speed, stalkers, or down town closers. Now on to today's card
First Race
#8 With a Miracle This is a lightly raced 5 year old mare and to me this looks like the connections are spotting her to win. I wrote about this last week but with the larger purses at Del Mar, connections are less worried about losing a horse to a claim as long as they can take down the winner's share of the purse. I like the fact that off of a 10 month layoff they protected her in allowance company last out and although she ran 5th at big odds, today she should be in against competition she can handle. Also a plus that Victor Espinoza keeps the mount. Looks ready to run a biggie
#3 Warren's Assassin To me this is the mystery horse having been off for almost a full year. This horse was last seen at Del Mar in 2012 going a mile on the turf in a starter allowance race. Gutierrez is strong off the long layoffs at 23% and he has been working her long in the morning and on the main track at Santa Anita. Those 2 things you normally wouldn't see if a horse wasn't sound. I expect this horse to sit mid pack and try and make one run turning for home
#9 Coco de Carchy Last out broke her maiden with a career best 70 beyer number and the question stands, did the light bulb go on? I'm not quite sold on her yet as I think she might of been up against a pretty bad group last time. She'll have to move forward again today to repeat.
Second Race
#5 Sirocco Strike I think this 6 year old gelding does his best work sprinting and on the turf. Won last time by a nose at Hollywood Park. Horse does not have any published works since that July 4th victory but Jeff Mullins might think he has this horse right where he wants him. I'm hoping he sits right off the speed of the 1 and can pass him in the stretch
#1 Distinctiv Passion This horse has never been on turf but has run well both on dirt & synthetic surfaces. He looks like he possibly is the lone speed breaking from the rail and if he gets loose they all could be running for second. The eye popping workout on July 18th must have been to make sure this horse is ready to run as fast as he can and as long as he can
#6 Rauschenberg This horse hasn't been seen since last August at Del Mar but it appears Rauschenbergy runs well after being freshened. This appears to be a one run horse. He will probably sit pretty far back but he does have an explosive turn of foot. If there is one negative it could be that this race is a little too short for him coming off such an extended layoff
Third Race
#6 Punxsutawney Phil This horse is 10-1 ML. He did take moderate action last time in an open MSW race at Hollywood Park. The horse was speed and fade and actually eased in the lane. The connections have put 3 solid works into the 2 year old gelding and dropped him down to Maiden 30. Maybe this is just where he belongs and I'm hoping for an improved effort in his second career start
#5 Salt Power Looks like the horse to beat but will be a very short price. Most likely will be the speed of the speed. This one drops out of State Bred MSW company and has the bug rider Orozco riding him back, yet another indication there is only one strategy "SEND"
#1 Short Sword A Mike Mitchell homebred that he trains and owns. Limited works but some things to like about this one
Fourth Race
#4 Lady Asano This is the 4th choice in ML of a 6 horse field but there are a few reasons I really like her. I still remember that first race of her career last November when the connections dipped in and claimed this horse for $75,000 and she was almost 88-1 that day and barely picked up her feet and ran 8th. They worked with her for 2 months and took off the blinkers and brought her back protected in a MSW race and she goes off almost 20-1 and guess what happens? She wins by over 7 lengths. Boy did Sadler see something in this one and I was think WTF that day. He wheeled her back in a G1 race 5 weeks later when she ran 7th in a field of 8 but didn't totally embarrass herself. Today she is in a better spot and clearly the connections liked her to put up that kind of money. They have given her 4 months off and put some really great works into her. I think she is ready to run a big one today
#6 Atlantic Swing Another price horse and another horse that hasn't been seen in over a year. She may try to be close up to the pace and try and spring a huge upset
#1 Miss Radiance She exits the same race as the 3 Branding and both of them were part of an unusual race where the pace setter ran a wicked 22.3 interior fraction and there was a loose horse causing concern with some of the other horses The race broke down late and the 1 Miss Radiance had to survive what I believe was a rider's claim of foul by Gary Stevens on Branding. Capable of repeating
Fifth Race
#6 Sweet Millicent Probably going to go off your post time favorite as nobody is better at spotting their horses first out than Jerry Hollendorfer. He is 25% in 1st starts and 42% when debuting in the maiden claiming ranks. My opinion is this horse is probably good enough to be in MSW company but because of the competitive purses he will place the horse aggressively and say "If you want her then go ahead and give me $50,000 for her" The good ole game of poker and she looks fit and ready to run first time out
#1 Mia's Storm Definitely the stand out on the morning work tabs and breaking from the rail means Talamo will probably be aggressive and send this horse to the lead
#5 Diamonds Dena Nothing more than a hunch play here as the horse has worked ok in the morning and Delgadillo and Glatt do some good work together at 22%
Sixth Race
#4 Darling Dodie I'm looking for a nice stalking trip sitting just off the speed and looking to wear them down late. I think Talamo should get a great trip with this horse and Mandella has placed her in a great spot today
#1 Sweet Assay Expecting to see Gonzalez send this horse from the rail and try and get to the lead. I think her best chance is to try and clear the other speed horses and attempt to steal this race
#6 Madre Luna To me this horse is kind of a clunker upper and if the horses up front go crazy fast and the race falls apart this is the type of horse that could find herself in the winner's circle
Seventh Race
#11 Blueskiesnrainbows Trying to pull off the HUGE upset as 15-1 ML in the Cougar Handicap. I look for an aggressive rider like Pedroza to send him to the lead and if he doesn't get a lot of early competition might just have a chance to pull the shocker. Last out he found himself on turf but I think that was purely to get him in a race with today's race targeted the entire time. I think he'll show an improved effort today
#6 Sky Kingdom Bob Baffert sends out what will be the post time favorite in Sky Kingdom. Ran 3rd last time out in the Hollywood Gold Cup where unfortunately had to run against another Baffert, Game on Dude. I remember after the race Baffert saying he really thought his 2 horses were going to run 1-2 that day. Anyways, if he runs back to that race he'll be tough to beat but at probably 4-5 odds today.
#3 Oilisblackgold This 6 year old gelding just seems like an honest horse who runs as hard as he can every single time. If Sky Kingdom fails to fire today there is no reason Oilisblackgold can't be getting his picture taken
Eighth Race
#6 Here's to Rose I love where this horse is spotted today. The connections claimed this one 2 back for $50k off Baffert at Hollywood Park. They started the horse a month later at the end of the Hollywood meet in a MSW race to protect her and I think save her for the Del Mar meet. Today they drop her back in for a $40k tag, probably where she belongs and they go after the lucrative purse. I think this one is going to be hard to beat
#3 Holiday N Newport Another horse that was claimed off Baffert for $50k at BHP. There are some things to like about this one too, but I think the 6 has more upside from a wagering perspective
#5 Elegant Bel This one comes in 15-1 ML and has flashed some speed in her last 2 starts. With the bug Orozco aboard will probably be on or near the lead and try to lead them as long as she can
Good Luck to all and thanks for reading. Best of Luck at Del Mar!
All the best,
JimmyQ
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