July 27, 2013
A full 10 race card for us to spend our Saturday afternoon with from Del Mar. Does it really get any better than this!?!?!?! Yesterday was one of those days I just couldn't get one of my big daily doubles finished so I was forced to play a little more aggressive with the win money in the last race and it ended up paying off. Now onto today's card with my selections and thoughts.
First Race
#2 Night Dance I think this horse may end up on the lead and that's probably where she needs to be if she is going to win this race. Mike Mitchell drops this horse in for 25k after putting 6 solid workouts into her. The workout on July 15th seems to answer the question whether she will like the Del Mar surface. I think Martin Garcia plays catch me if you can
#3 Skinny Genes This is the dropper in the field as Peter Miller trains the horse for the first time. He drops the horse and adds blinkers which is typically a sign the connections are really targeting today's race. Even with the blinkers she will probably sit mid to back of the pack and try and make one big run
#7 Romantic Wish Bill Spawr claimed this horse for 25k last time at Hollywood Park off of Eddie Truman who is only a 4% trainer. Before that, she was in a barn for an 8% trainer so this is definitely a nice upgrade for the horse as Spawr is 21% and is 28% off the claim. I look for a better effort today
Second Race
#2 Forever Juanito I like this horse for a couple of reasons. He is a 2 year old gelding whom they only paid $22,000 for so the fact they are still protecting this horse today in MSW company means they really like this animal. He ran pretty well in his first start which was sprinting over the Hollywood Park turf. It won't take much improvement today to break his maiden
#4 American Pride Bob Baffert and speed..that is exactly what you will get from this horse. Ran 4th in his debut after sitting close to the pace. The additional furlong today might be what he needs to relax out on the lead
#6 Papa's Paisley Just a hunch play here at a price as the horse has been working long and working well over the Del Mar surface.
Third Race
#5 Julio's Gold This is the first time the horse has ever ran over a synthetic surface and off a freshening should be ready to fire his best race. I look for this horse to be on or near the lead. Hoping she gets brave on the lead and never looks back
#10 U R Candy Girl Candy Ride's are one of my favorite sires on the synthetic surfaces. Last race was beaten as the 4-5 favorite in a similar spot. She was claimed that day by Bill Morey who is 33% off the claim. I think she'll have a much better showing today
#1 Katey Pie The mystery horse in the field. Personally I think this field is pretty weak so if this horse is ready to run there is no reason she can't shock at a BIG price.
Fourth Race
#4 Sweet Marini I get worried about a horse like this who has never passed a horse in her life. Both of her wins was when she was in front but after looking at this race I'm not as concerned about it b/c she does look like she will be on the lead. I think her main competition the 6 Doinghardtimeagain will concede the lead to her
#6 Doinghardtimeagain Will probably sit just off the 4 Sweet Marini and try to pass her around the turn or in the stretch. I'm just hoping Sweet Marini digs in and holds her off
#7 Qiaona Horse is cutting back and changing surfaces. I don't think she is good enough to win this race but is running for minor awards
Fifth Race
#5 Twitch I think she is spotted to win today and this isn't the strongest of groups so if she runs her race she should be getting her picture taken
#8 Now Hope The horse won last time out after the drop down into maiden claiming ranks. To me this is the time to play the horse back when maybe the light bulb might have come on and she felt what it was like to win a race. Talamo will probably be aggressive with this horse and have her close to the pace
#10 Amulay Trainer Charlie Stutts sends this horse out and again the competition is so weak in this field that this horse totally makes sense. They ran the horse 6 days again here at Del Mar and are wheeling her right back and dropping her down in the claiming ranks probably where she belongs. I'm rooting for Charlie as I was fortunate enough to have some beers with him a couple years ago at the 100-1 bar across the street from Santa Anita. The old fella would be beyond thrilled to be in the winner's circle at Del Mar.
Sixth Race
#8 Magic Daddy Firster for Baffert that cost $575,000. Horse has been working lightning quick in morning and looks like another possible monster for this barn. Like he needs another one!
#9 Carrytheteam This horse is 10-1 on the ML and a first for John Sadler. The Candy Ride Sire that they paid $475,000 so they saw something very promising in him. Sadler is 22% with firsters but he is off to a bit of a slow start at Del Mar
#3 Chief Lion Fast and long works in the morning seem to indicate that Eoin Harty has this one ready to run big in his debut. Wouldn't be a complete shock
Seventh Race
#9 My Samurai Warrior 12-1 on the ML and one of the bigger prices I will be playing today. I think the 4 year old gelding will really enjoy stretching out after back to back sprints. Victor Garcia is only a 9% trainer but he is 21% when going from sprint/route and he and jockey Kevin Krigger are 18% together
#6 Bio Pro This horse is coming out of cheaper races but has been improving so the connections are giving the 5 year old gelding a chance to show if he belongs with this company. It won't take a major improvement from him to be right there at the wire
#1 Motown Men To me this looks like Maldonado will have to try and send this horse to the lead from the rail. This could also make like difficult for the 2 Tom's Tribute who will be the post time favorite and I'm trying to beat him because of what I forsee as a speed duel
Eighth Race
#1 Kettle Corn Added blinkers last time and suddenly woke up and ran his career best beyer of a 112 in losing to Game on Dude in the Hollywood Gold Cup by a length. He has a win over the Del Mar surface in his career so I think he'll fire another big race today and find himself in the winner's circle
#3 Paynter What a comeback for Paynter firing a 114 beyer after almost a year away from the races where he nearly lost his life. Today is a big step up for him as he takes on stiffer competition but all signs indicate he will run a great race
#4 Liaison The other Baffert horse with much less hype. At one point Baffert really loved this horse as a 2 year old and had high expectations for him. He has started to turn into that race horse he thought he had a couple years ago but against this group I think he'll only be able to be 3rd best
Ninth Race
#8 Corsa di Cavalli Um, this horse has not been seen in nearly 2 years. He clearly had a ton of talent at 2 as he won over this Del Mar surface in his first career start and put up a pretty good beyer. The connections then tried him in the Del Mar Futurity but that was the last time he has been at the races. A big drop today but the connections only paid $26,000 for him so I'm not that alarmed by this drop as the Del Mar purses are worth spotting your horses to win. Long and fast workouts for him also is a good sign
#4 Bev's Finale This horse is 12-1 on the ML but there is a reason I think he has a shot today. This 4 year old gelding has only raced 3 times in his life and clearly has some issues staying healthy. Well today marks the first time this horse has ever been able to run back to back races as he ran only a few weeks ago. The drop the horse in for 25k today and probably know he has health limitations so let's take a shot at winning a race while he is healthy.
#1 South Floyd No mystery here as I think we know we're going to get speed from the rail with this horse. He will attempt to take them gate to wire and he just might be able to do so
Tenth Race
#7 Iconic Spirit This horse will try the turf for only the seond time. What encourages me is that in her second career start the connections put her on the grass that day and she was actually bet down to the favorite before running a disappointing 7th. Clearly they expected better from her on the surface and maybe today going long on the turf is the formula for her success
#9 Tappingintherain Will be blazing up front and looks like the speed of the field. I don't like playing speed horses on the turf at Del Mar but this one might be tough and there really aren't any concerns whether the horse will take to the turf. She is bred well for it
#10 Passionate Diva Price play and a private purchase horse from Europe. Doug O'Neill has given the horse 7 months to get acclamated and the horse gets lasix for his US debut
Best of Luck out there today, I hope you all enjoyed reading and I'll be back tomorrow with a Sunday Del Mar blog
All the Best,
JimmyQ
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